The Nightmare Scenario

Tommy posted about the Elias rankings last night and afterwards we started throwing out disaster and dream scenarios beyond the ones he offered.

Most of these involved the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. They figure to show interest in Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano alike. Unfortunately, the Angels might also show interest in other free agents like Jayson Werth and Adrian Beltre; thus making it a numbers game to determine whom would get the better draft pick if the Angels sign multiple Type-A free agents. That’s not good news, because these rankings are flawed in their composition and execution.

To further complicate matters, the Angels’ first round pick is protected. If the Angels were to sign Werth, Soriano, and Beltre, the Rays not only would not receive the Angels’ first round pick, but they would not get first dibs on their second rounder either because Werth is ranked higher (he’s actually the only free agent ranked higher than Soriano). That would leave the Rays with a third rounder and a supplemental pick to show for Soriano.

Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays can relate. When the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett prior to the 2009 season, the Jays saw their Type-A compensation slip from a first round pick down to a third round pick. The Brewers receiving only a second round pick for Sabathia left a bitter taste in Milwaukee’s mouth as well.

To avoid a similar fate with Carl Crawford, make sure to root for these folks to sign elsewhere:

Cliff Lee
Victor Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Derek Jeter
Rafael Soriano
Jayson Werth

Rivera and Jeter figure to be Yankees, meaning they would be irrelevant to the proceedings. Martinez is probably going to stick in Boston too. Soriano obviously would not be signing with New York and Werth would not be on the same team as Crawford. That leaves Lee, although his market seems to be either Texas or New York at this point.

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