By R.J. Anderson //
One of those prevailing questions during any given offseason usually concerns which minor league players within a system are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The eligibility for the draft is pretty simple. Teams have four years to add players who sign at age 19 or older (and five for those who are younger) to the 40-man roster or else risk losing them via the draft, which acts as a talent spreading equalizer. Last year alone saw the Rays add Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson, and Alexander Torres to the 40-man roster to keep them within the organization, even if that meant in the minors instead of the majors for the immediate future.
Here are the organization’s top talents who at this point would be eligible for selection:
Alex Cobb
A right-handed starting pitcher drafted in the fourth round of the 2006 draft (the very same class that produced Jennings and Evan Longoria), Cobb is currently pitching for Montgomery with a career best strikeout per nine innings rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cobb throws a low-90s fastball with sink and a plus curveball. Combine that with his 6’1” listed height and the Tim Hudson comparisons seem inevitable if Cobb keeps pitching well. He’s a must-add if he’s still in the system.
Matthew Sweeney
One of the pieces of the Scott Kazmir trade, Sweeney had a solid month and a half in High-A before heading to Double-A and struggling. His seasonal line there is .196/.263/.276 which does not do the 22 year old credit. He’s still playing third base and batting left-handed and while this season looks bad, he has a history of hitting. Odds are the Rays protect him.
Heath Rollins
Another 6’1” right-handed product of the 2006 draft, Rollins qualified for last year’s Rule 5 draft and went unselected. Rollins too sits in the low 90s and generates a fair number of grounders, but unlike Cobb, he is a full-blown middle reliever in the majors. Probably won’t need protecting, but could see time in the majors next season as he was in the running for the final pen spot this year as well.
Nevin Ashley
Ashley, too, is a repeat offender of being eligible. The best case scenario for him is to turn into the Rays’ version of A.J. Ellis. Dioner Navarro is likely gone after this season, but with Kelly Shoppach and John Jaso intact, the organization only needs one of Ashley and Jose Lobaton protected. My preference is Lobaton
Aneury Rodriguez
The return on Jason Hammel went undrafted last year and probably didn’t help his stock this year either. His strikeout rates and walk totals have went the wrong way since coming over from Colorado. He’s still young – he’ll turn 23 within a week after the Rule 5 draft – but his stuff has always been questioned. He’s a guy who has to work around the zone and get ahead to be successful with a low-90s fastball and curveball. Some team might pluck him as their long reliever. If not, it’s conceivable he could help the Rays out of the pen in 2011.
Reid Fronk
23 years old and repeating High-A, Fronk is unlikely to be taken; even if he were selected, he’s not worth a 40-man spot.
Emeel Salem
Salem is even older than Fronk with a lesser history of success. He’s an organizational soldier
David Newmann
The Rays’ fourth round pick in 2007, Newmann didn’t pitch in the minor leagues for the club until 2009. He’s started 46 games since and his numbers have been okay. He’s a southpaw with some potential, which usually means he could be stored in a bullpen, but I’m hesitant to believe that risk isn’t worth taking when the reward is a 25 year old injury prone non-elite starting pitching prospect.
Stephen Vogt
Another older player in High-A without much need for protection; he’s had a nice season, but no way he sticks on a team’s 25-man roster all season.
Shawn O’Malley
The speedy shortstop from Washington whom the Rays selected in the fifth round of the 2006 draft hasn’t worked out. He’s not going to be selected and he’ll probably spend the next offseason shopping for a new team as a minor league free agent.
With the exception of Cobb and Sweeney, this year’s eligibility class is drab. Next year promises to heat up, though, as Matthew Moore, Nick Barnese, Alexander Colome, and Wilking Rodriguez will need to be added to the 40-man.
R.J. Anderson
Tommy Rancel
Heath Baywood
Chris St. John
Ian Malinowski
I look at this a little differently – a lot has to do with spots available and how many need reserving for FA pick ups.
Rays could free as many as 14 current 40 man roster spots. Goners, at least absent being resigned, are Qualls, Navarro (sure NT), Soriano, Benoit, Balfour, Choate, Pena, Crawford, and Kapler.
Also Possibles are Bartlett (trade), Aybar and Wheeler (dec. option, + NT Aybar), & Cormier and Johnson (NT’s). In a complete tear down even Thayer or Eckstrom and Howell could be NT’d.
A pen shambles, plus 1B and DH could be FA fills.
None of the current Rule 5 eligibles are real candidates to grab spots – but there are some depth pieces that could be added on, including some funky choices you didn’t discuss.
Among current 40 not 25 roster guys I see as having a shot to fill 25 man spots next year, Eck or Thayer could land the last righty pen slot (though I doubt it), Mc Gee looks like a good shot at Choate’s or the 2nd lefty spot, especially if JP returns effectively to set up duty. Jennings could take CC’s (or BJ’s?), and Ruggiano could take the Kapler slot. Leaves Hellickson in a depth role, or up with another starter converted to pen duty.
Still would need maybe 3-4 roster spots for pen guys, a 1B, and a DH. And bench spots maybe, but those could also be filled by minors FA signs.
But even with 6 FA adds, that’s up to 8 available roster spots. So there’s plenty of room to add a few depth guys. And if they don’t pan out, give em up later to make room for next years’ roster elevations.
That said, I don’t differ much with your thinking, with the possible exception of another category of player.
Cobb is a shoo-in, especially if rotation space is made for Helly and McGee goes to the pen. While Sonny and the possible pen transfer (Davis gets Joba’d?) mean 2 potential backup starters there, plus Torres, one of these years’ the Rays are going to have a signifcant rotation injury or 2. Depth is a good thing, plus he’s the only real obvious add.
Newmann is an interesting case – lefties are always a risk to be grabbed. I just don’t see him sticking on an active roster, so I think he’s an unlikely pick, and a less likely stick.
Most of the rest are far less likely to be selected. It’s hard to waste a bench spot on a corner IF who looks really far from ready or doesn’t offer significant defensive flexibility – AAA roster protection should be plenty to keep Sweeney.
Where I might differ is on Rodriguez, if only because pen depth looks a bit slim. There’s lots of roster space, and relievers are prime choices, plus easier to bury on an active roster and / or randomly DL for awhile. Heck, Kanekoa Texeira stuck all year, albeit with 2 teams.
But I see a couple of other possible adds, not from eligibles, but from potential Minors free agents. Again, all as depth pieces.
1) The return of Helliott! IF depth is an issue, especially if Barty is traded (that trade could fill a spot of course). Johnson is still only 26, flexible, and had his best season in the minors. And dropping him again wouldn’t be a crisis.
Further possible pitching depth adds from the current internal minors FA ranks could include:
1) Robert DeLosSantos – no great shakes, but possible rotation / long relief depth. Only 26. A surprisingly solid, if unspectacular, season at AAA. Hey, it’s one less minors FA to sign later. And dropping him later would again be no skin off anyone’s back.
2) Darin Downs – really emerged as a solid LRP in AA, struggled at first in Durham but righted the ship. Just 25, decent periphs, a nice depth piece, best case could even allow McGee to continue starting in Durham if the club wanted by assuming the Choate role. What a concept – a homegrown RP under the age of 30!
3) R J Swindle – see rationale for Downs, except Swindle is 27, isn’t homegrown. Probably could be resigned as minors FA, but could be at risk to be picked. Plus RJ seems to be a fan.
Sorry, no love for Abreu or Bateman. Wrong side of 30.
And my monster sleeper in the same vein:
4) Dane De la Rosa – hey what’s not to like? Yeah he’s older at 27, but that’s younger than most of your RP’s. Nice solid performance in AA this year. And the Rays need a successful RP named de la Rosa. Plus he was plucked out of Indy ball – a twist on the Jim Morris story! And he was originally drafted by the Yankees, so that cinches it for me.
Oh, and of course I forgot Bowling Green IF Robi Estrada.
Ok, no I didn’t.
And no mention of “King Kyeong” Kang?
How about Beckham, if only to help hin shrug off his mediocre 2010?
The fact is the shallowness of the choices overall point to a fact that goes way too unremarked at this point. Aside from decent pitching talent, where the need might be lowest, the cupboard looks a pretty bare.
Permit me some snark here, but to my mind the Rays are leading contenders for most overrated minors system at the moment.